Fernando Gutierrez

September 10, 2013


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Such has been the threat of reprisals by the affected countries that Cristina Kirchner had to leave hurried to assure you to Lula da Silva that: there was no brake to the entry of products, nor will be. Argentina sees how its external situation deteriorates as it loses competitiveness that has allowed him to enjoy the exchange rate depreciated after the end announced of the convertibility system. In an article by Fernando Gutierrez for iProfesional, reflected the concern of the Argentine Government to the depreciation observed by real in the present year, which began exchanging to R $ 1.7 per dollar and is currently located in a range of 1.8 reais to 1.9 reais surrounded by high volatility. This behavior to the rise of the Brazilian currency could generate a dangerous devaluatoria response from Argentina to maintain the competitiveness of the exchange rate. However, this path that the Argentine Government would choose is incompatible with an economic policy Pro consumption that is pursuing at the moment.

What could be the result of two actions that are contradictory? A strong inflationary momentum. If annual retail inflation rate is currently above 20%, sufficient nominal exchange rate depreciation to retrieve part of exchange-rate competitiveness loss, take it well above 30% and with a high probability of accelerated. Is it really the Brazilian real the real problem of bilateral trade between Argentina and Brazil? If take into account that Argentina has had in recent years a deficit of the trade balance bilateral permanent, even when the real reached highs against the dollar, which has only become surplus during a couple of months when the crisis struck with force to the economy argentina, it is clear that is not the question of the nominal exchange rate which is affecting Argentina external accounts.